Market Outlook


Our Outstanding Market Turning Points in Economic Times


Sneak peek in2 our uncanny ability of catching market turning points.


1.4th June 2016 we are the first to call bull market

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/bulls-are-back-nifty50-heading-for-9300-by-february-2017/articleshow/52583525.cms


2. 29th July 2015 -- Only advisory in the country to project crash in Nifty with a target of 7200.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/nifty-on-the-verge-of-a-bigger-crash-may-fall-to-7200-in-3-5-months-mazhar-mohammad/articleshow/48265985.cms


3. 5th December 2015 --Only advisory in the country to project market will bottom out below 7000 somewhere in February or March 2016 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/end-of-the-road-for-modi-bulls-nifty-to-trade-in-sub-7000-levels/articleshow/50053550.cms


4. 7th October 2014 -- Despite majority government at the center we stick to our high conviction research methodology and projected continuation of bear market in INR Vs. USD with a target of 71.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/expect-rupee-to-hit-new-low-of-71-to-us-dollar/articleshow/44599797.cms






GET A GLIMPSE IN2 OUR ANALYTICAL THOUGHT PROCES N C HOW ACCURATELY WE MAKE PROJECTIONS


Morning Notes: (05 March, 2015)

Yesterday's 'u' turn from day’s high of 9119 may be a warning signal suggesting market has made a near term top. Technically 9100 is a critical resistance level for markets besides month of March is also a critical turning point from time cycles point of view. Hence, we won’t  be surprised even if market makes a major top here and continues it sell-off by 5-10%. Any pull back attempt should be used to square off long positions. 


Morning Notes: (04 March 2015)

With New life time highs markets are again looking very buoyant. Technically speaking this momentum can take the indices initially towards 9100 levels. However, as markets reached overbought levels caution is warranted and focus should be stock specific than chasing momentum and buying everything

Morning Notes: (02 March 2015)

Late recovery post budget session is suggesting positive bias to continue for markets post event also. If this rally sustains beyond 8996 then it can extend up to 9100 kind of levels. However on the downside it is critical to sustain above budget day low of 8751                                                                                                             


11 August 2014 ( NIFTY - Last Close:7568 ) -- One More Feather in Our Cap


This is what we concluded after Friday's close and in our market update released on Monday Morning when everybody else was expecting NIFTY to continue its fall....... 


NIFTY has either bottomed out at Friday's low of 7540 or will bottom out in ensuing week round 7505 and hence one should utilize this dip to create long positions for NEW LIFE TIME HIGHS.


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19 AUGUST 2013 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 5507)

Our worst fears of bear market are coming true. If 6229 is a major top then no level on the downside shall be sacrosanct enough to stop Bears from taking NIFTY close to 5000 or even below it. To read more.......

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12 AUGUST 2013 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 5565)

As longas NIFTY sustains above recent low of 5486 we expect it to initially target5790

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31 JULY 2013 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 5742)

We can'tget bullish untill NIFTY crosses 6093. Failure to sustain above 5566 enhancesthe chances of being in a Bear Market.

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14 JULY 2013 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 6009)

Litmus test for NIFTY is to get past 6133 in next 3 trading sessions. If it succeeds,then,it may embark on a medium term uptrend and we may see one more attempt towards 6300.

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10 JULY 2013 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 5859)

NIFTY ,on hourly charts, appears to be correcting in the form of a contractingtriangle for the last 6 trading sessions which may breakout in next one or twotrading sessions. In such a scenario NIFTY may initially target 5990.Conservative traders can wait for confirmation of breakout and initiatepositions only when NIFTY closes above 5900.

SUPPORTS : 5834,5774

RESISTANCE : 5904

     TRADE WELL

     OUR MAJOR CALLS

1. PROJECTED NEW HIGHS FOR NIFTY WITH A TARGET OF 7000 INFEBRUARY 2012(Buy Detail Report: Rs.750)

2. PROJECTED 4500 FOR NIFTY IN FEBRUARY 2011(Buy DetailReport:Rs.500

SAMPLEREPORTS


16 JULY 2012 ( NIFTY - Last Close : 5227)

Isuspect the formation of Double Three Combination Correction from the top of5630 registered on 22nd February 2012 and currently second corrective structureis in progress. By the guideline of Alternation it should unfold as a FLAT. Thelast leg of rally from the recent low of 4770 can be labelled as wave c insideWave B of one higher degree. The weight of Technical evidence gathered from thecharts is suggesting that WAVE B culminated at the recent top of 5345 there bypaving the way for Wave C which shall ideally retrace entire Wave B. Hence byNeo Wave time techniques NIFTY is expected to retest 4800 levels by 14th August2012.

Our reading of hourly charts is suggesting that NIFTY isunfolding in a Zig Zag fashion from the top of 5345. It completed Wave A andcurrently Wave B is in progress and it appears to be unfolding as an invertedFLAT. In such a scenario it can target the zone of 5266 – 5296. Hence this kindof pull back rally should be utilised to pare off existing long positions andinitiate fresh shorts with a stop above 5350. Our view will be invalidated ifNIFTY get past 5345 and we shall revisit our wave counts.


30 APRIL 2012 (SENSEX : 17187)

Correctionfrom the top of 18523 registered on 22nd February 2012 appears to have unfoldedin the form of a Double Three Combination Correction in Elliott Wave parlancewith a combination of Zigzag , X wave which is followed by a ContractingTriangle. Since then it has consumed 9 weeks which resulted in the price damageof around 9% from the said top of 18523 to a recent low of 16920. Secondcorrective structure which started from the top of 18040 registered on 14thMarch 2012 is unfolding as a Contracting Triangle with lower tops and higherlows and appears to have completed 5 legs .If we presume that wave e culminatedat a low of 17019 registered on 25th April 2012 then sooner than latter Sensexshall register an upside breakout in next couple of trading sessions. By NeoWave logics such a breakout shall occur in a period which is lesser than thetime period consumed for the formation of wave e. In other words the BDTrendline of a Contracting Triangle shall get broken on the upside in next twotrading sessions, whose value is placed around 17445, which shall signal thecompletion of a Double Three Combination Correction which started in the monthof February 2012. The thrust resulting out of such a breakout of a contractingtriangle shall result in the minimum gain of 1100 sensex points whichtranslates into an initial target of 18112 .

Albeit my preferred count is bullishly poised but alternatecount is suggesting a bleak picture for sensex if we assume the firstcorrective structure to have culminated at a low of 16920 registered on 29thMarch 2012. This alternate count can’t be ruled out as it is adhering to allthe rules and guidelines of Elliott Wave Principle. In such a scenario therally from the low of 16920 which is unfolding as a contracting triangle shallbe assumed to be an X wave. On the charts it appears to have completed 4 legsup to wave d and wave e is yet to unfold. Any rally in the form of wave e shallget terminated below 17530 and a reversal from the said level shall take theindices towards 16500 mark.


13 FEBRUARY 2012

NIFTY INA BULL MARKET - LIKELY TO TARGET 7000.


16 January 2012

NIFTYsigned off the week with a second consecutive weekly gain of 2.5% on weeklyclosing basis. In this process it appears to have approached confluence ofresistance levels, as shown on the chart, as it registered a ‘Tri Star Doji’kind of pattern on daily time frame which is indicating loss of momentum on theupside. Interestingly the said pattern has formed after retracing 61.8%Fibonacci Retracement level of its last leg of fall from 5099 – 4531. BesidesNIFTY also tested the upper boundary of its 20 Day old ascending channel whichis expected to offer resistance. On the oscillator front Daily Stochastics hasgenerated a sell signal. Hence, based on this technical evidence we expectNIFTY to correct from 4900 levels. As NIFTY appears to be moving in anascending channel, it can be expected to pull back towards its gap zone of 4675– 4645 which also coincides with 62% Fibonacci Retracement level of its lastleg of rise from 4531 - 4898. However initial support for NIFTY can be expectedaround 4800 level breach of which shall accelerate selling pressure.

Contrary to our expectations if NIFTY registers a decisivebreakout above 4900 our view shall get negated and NIFTY shall initially targetthe zone of 5067 – 5100.

RECOMMENDEDSTRATEGY :

Traders can initiate short positions in NIFTY with a stoploss of above 4905 for short term targets of 4800 and a higher target of 4714.Contrary to this if NIFTY registers a breakout and closes above 4900 initiatelong positions for a target of 5067 – 5100. In such a scenario place Monday’slow as your stoploss.


19 December 2011:

Weassumed that entire correction from the peak of 6338 is unfolding as a TrippleThree of which third corrective structure Z is in progress from 26th November2011 from the top of 5326. By the Guideline of Alternation Wave B (within WaveB of Z) should emerge as a FLAT or Triangle. As of now both the possibilitiesare still open as structure of A and B both subdivided itself into 3 waves. IfWave B of Z takes the shape of FLAT then it has following options.

a. If Wave B of said FLAT extend its corrective processbeyond 4629, it should target 4530 and in the worst case, for this correctivemove, should be 4463.

b. If we presume that Wave B of said FLAT has ended at 4629then NIFTY should initially target 5100 before B of Z terminates.

However, if Wave B of Z were to unfold as Running Trianglethen NIFTY is expected to consolidate in the zone of 4700 – 4900 till WAVE B ofZ gets culminated. IN either of the situations discussed above, once WAVE B ofZ is culminated it should pave the way for ferocious WAVE C of Z which shouldtake the indices to much lower levels may be towards 4000.


12 December, 2011:

Entirecorrection from the peak of 6338, registered in November 2010, appears to be unfoldingas Tripple Three in Elliott Wave terminology which is marked as ABC-X-ABC-X-ABCat a lower degree which in turn is marked as W,Y and Z at one higher degree.Currently we are into Third Corrective structure which unfolded on 4th ofNovember 2011 from the top of 5326 which is labelled as ‘Z.’

Rally from the recent low of 4639 can be marked as thebeginning of Wave B of Third Corrective structure Z. If i presume that Wave Bterminated around 5099 then we are into Wave C which unfolded from the said levelof 5100. WAVE C is destructive in nature and lived upto its reputation byshaving off 5% in 3 days.

However, if any pull back rally decisively breaches 5100,then Wave B should be assumed to be still in progress and shall terminatearound 5240. (As of now we are going with the assumption that WAVE B of Z isunfolding only as ZIGZAG and not considering other options in this piece ofoutlook)

Eventually Wave C (irrespective of the corrective patternassumed by WAVE B) should take NIFTY towards retest of its recent lows placedaround 4650. If Third Corrective maintains logical relationship with itspreceding two corrective structures which are marked as ‘W and Y’ then NIFTYshould ultimately head towards 4000.

Hence we advice caution to traders/investors and recommend touse any pull back rally to pare off their existing holdings and initiate freshshorts.

DISSCLAIMER : ThisTechnical Outlook is published only to create awareness about market behaviourbut not as an invitation to trade. If anybody is acting on this piece oftechnical information, they are doing so at their own responsibility .


16th August 2011:

SovereignDebt Crisis shall continue to haunt the bourses in the near term. Decisivebreach of the February 2011 lows of 5177 appears to have opened up new targetsfor NIFTY on the down side. Market participants shall not be surprised to seethe levels of 4750 or even 4500 in the weeks ahead. However, a pull back rallyfrom current levels can’t be ruled out in a day or two which shall peter outaround 5300 levels.


DISCLAIMER:

Aboveanalysis is presented only to educate the traders about market direction. Ourview can change any time subject to the price behavior of indices which willinstantly be communicated only to our premium clients but not to all generalreaders. While due care has been taken for preparing the above report, noresponsibility shall be assumed for any consequences arising out of it. Hence,if anybody is acting on this piece of advise they are doing so at their ownrisk and requested to consult their Financial Advisors.